Poker Odds Calculator Excel Spreadsheet

If I end up making a useful poker spreadsheet, I'll add it to this page for you to download and play with.

Because the chance is less then 1%. You will need 3 specific cards, assuming there are still 11 cards in the deck, the chance is (11/50)(10/50)(9/50). Now you also have to take into account that there is a chance that one of the other players has one or two of the cards you need. Pot Odds Poker Calculator. If you are new to pot odds, I suggest watching this quick pot odds poker video to get up to speed. It’s only 5 minutes long and will get you up to speed. If you are comfortable with the concept, you can use this calculator to show the ratio and equity requirement when you are facing a bet. This post works with 5-card Poker hands drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. The discussion is mostly mathematical, using the Poker hands to illustrate counting techniques and calculation of probabilities Working with poker hands is an excellent way to illustrate the counting techniques covered previously in this blog - multiplication principle, permutation.

What kind of spreadsheets are they?

Just anything that might help explain any kind of poker concept that involves numbers.

1. Pot Growth Visualizer - Watch the pot grow.

Download (Mac):pot-growth-visualiser.numbers (original file)
Download (Excel):pot-growth-visualiser.xls (exported from Numbers.app)

Description: See how your bets and raises affect how rapidly the size of the pot grows.
Features: Find out how much you need to bet to set up a pot-size all-in on the river.
Benefits: The deeper your understanding of geometric pot size growth, the better you'll get at controlling and manipulating pot sizes to your advantage.
Source:Progressive Bet Sizing

Why use spreadsheets?

Bit old-school aren't they? Well, yeah, but they're simple and effective. You don't see knives going out of fashion.

So when I'm writing an article I may create a spreadsheet to help me out. I'll use it to help me calculate things and display information clearly. It allows me to see the strategy.

The boxes are perfect for organizing numbers and laying out calculations in an easy to read format. This helps you to 'see' the calculations in your head.
The charts are marvelous for visualizing the results of your calculations. This helps you to 'see' the results and the effects of inputs/actions.

Spreadsheets are magic for analyzing statistical things, and poker is one of those statistical things. If you can work with spreadsheets, you have a powerful tool at your disposal for analyzing ideas. Just as a gladiator would benefit from a sexy new weapon, a poker player benefits from Excel.

But what exactly can you do with spreadsheets? Honestly, play with them and see for yourself. EV equations would be a good place to start. Then try some pot odds and other mathematical stuff.

And when you get the hang of it, you'll be thankful you acquired the skill. Excel isn't just for lame databases. It's actually an awesome tool that will develop your skill of decision analysis. And winning the most money from poker is simply a case of making the best possible decisions at every opportunity.

The next time you want to work something out using numbers, try doing it in Excel (or whatever spreadsheet app you prefer).

Popular spreadsheet tools.

Excel - The original, and the popular choice.
Numbers - Snazzy spreadsheet offering from Apple. Sleek and effective.
Google Docs - Free web-based app. Perfect for simpler jobs, but lacks the more complex functionality of the downloadable apps above.

Honorable Mention: Soulver (Mac)

I love Soulver. It's a cross between a calculator, a note pad, and a spreadsheet. It's a calculator/note pad mostly, and it's super handy for things like EV equations.

Go back to the handy Texas Hold'em tools.

Ever wondered how you are actually doing in sports betting?

Just like tracking your finances can be an eye opening experience (I spent how much at restaurants last month?!), tracking your bets can shed some light on how you are doing.

Download the free sports bet tracking spreadsheet below to get started:

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet: Instant Insights

If you want to measure your performance and see where you are succeeding and failing, you need to track it.

With this free tool, you can see your performance broken down by various dimensions.

Have a great ROI on betting NBA 2nd halves? Getting solid closing line value on NFL point spreads? This spreadsheet allows you to answer questions like this and more.

How to use the spreadsheet

While the spreadsheet is pretty straightforward, I’d like to walk you through how it works.

How to track sports bets

Everything lives in the “Bet Log” tab. This is the only place information is manually entered. Once the data is entered there, all other tabs will automatically populate.

In the “Bet Log” tab, blue columns are required while red columns are optional. The more information you input, the more useful the spreadsheet will be.

Entering things like the closing line, while slightly annoying, will also be the most important to your success.

How to analyze performance

Each tab will have different graphs and tables that show your performance. The beauty of this is that you can filter the data by any dimension you like.

Any yellow cell is an “input” cell that can be changed. All of these are dropdowns that are pre-populated based on the information you enter in the Bet Log.

How to add more leagues and teams

To add new leagues and teams, you will do so in the “REF” tab. This tab holds all of the lookup information for the dropdowns throughout the spreadsheet.

Again, the cells available to modify are in yellow. You can add the following dimensions:

Leagues (ex: WNBA)
Teams (ex: Chicago Sky)
Tags (ex: 2nd half)

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Metrics

Deciding what to track is important in determining how you measure success. The spreadsheet tracks the following key metrics:

Closing Line Value

Closing line value (CLV) is a measure of how much better or worse the odds you bet at were compared to where they closed.

If you believe the markets you are betting into are efficient (NFL point spreads, MLB moneylines, etc.), then CLV is a great predictor of long term success.

All you need to do is input the odds you placed your bet at as well as where the odds closed. Preferably you use a market making sportsbook like Pinnacle to decide what the “true” closing line was.

Profit

Profit is about as simple as it gets. Are you making or losing money?

While this is the “bottom line”, surprisingly it isn’t always predictive of long term success. Still, you will obviously want to see how much money you have made or lost.

ROI

This is what most people tend to look at. It is a measure of how profitable you are relative to how much you are risking.

While at the end of the day, the money in your pocket is what matters, this metric focuses more on results rather than process and is a measure of efficiency.

ROI isn’t as predictive of long term winning as CLV, but is useful to track to see where you stand.

Risk

This one is simple, yet will likely give you insights into where you are putting your money.

If you have a model, does it consistently value the Dallas Cowboys differently than the market? Thus making many of your bets on the Cowboys? Analyzing your risk by league/team/bet type can give you these types of answers.

Bankroll

Bankroll will track our running total of how much money you have in your accounts across all sportsbooks. You can also see this trended over time to help you see any changes in your betting strategy and how that has affected your bankroll.

It is very useful to see, at a glance, where your money lies. Is 95% of our bankroll at FanDuel? Maybe you should shift some to DraftKings.

Bet Tracker Spreadsheet Dimensions

Having these metrics available is important, but insights really come from slicing the data by different dimensions.

League/Team

Tracking your performance by league or team can give you clues into where your strengths or weaknesses are.

Do you watch every second of every New York Knicks game? Think you have an edge on Knicks games? You can find out using the spreadsheet.

Same goes for leagues. Do you follow NFL closely but use strictly numbers for NCAA Basketball? Compare the performance of the two and see what’s working.

Bet Type

Looking at performance by bet type can also shed some light on your process, especially if it is model driven.

Track your performance by the following bet types:

Spread
Moneyline
Total
Prop
Future

You can also use the “Tag” field to designate special types of bets. For example, if you want to see your performance on moneylines for NBA 2nd halves, you would put “2H” (or something similar) in the Tag field and “moneyline” in the bet type field.